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Abstract Predictions for the southwestern US with warming often suggest increased aridity. We investigate the sedimentary record of the Miocene Climate Optimum and Transition (MCO and MCT; ∼17–14 Ma) in northern New Mexico to understand the impact of warmer global temperatures and higherpCO₂on southwestern US hydroclimate. The MCO and MCT comprised a globally warmer period with elevatedpCO₂similar to end‐of‐the‐century (∼400–800 ppm) projections. We present new stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) records of vadose‐zone and groundwater terrestrial carbonates and of modern precipitation, stream, and groundwater from the Española basin in northern New Mexico and establish a high‐resolution age model using new⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. We interpret δ¹⁸O as reflecting the balance between summertime monsoonal and wintertime precipitation and δ¹³C as a reflection of plant productivity. Terrestrial carbonate δ¹⁸O is lowest during the MCO and MCT and is correlated with terrestrial carbonate δ¹³C and anti‐correlated with the benthic δ¹⁸O record. We interpret these data as recording an overall winter‐wet climate during the MCO and MCT, but that precipitation seasonality varied in response to changes in global climate during this period. The further correlation with carbonate δ¹³C suggests that plant productivity was driven by the amount of wintertime precipitation. Comparison with middle Miocene climate model simulations reveals that higher CO₂drives a shift toward wintertime precipitation. Though paleogeographic changes may obscure a direct comparison to modern warming, overall, our findings suggest that prolonged global warmth may be associated with increased wintertime precipitation and greater primary productivity in northern New Mexico.